We read the 10-Ks and 10-Qs, build the model, and write down the assumptions we used to get to fair value — so you can check our work instead of taking our word for it.
One free note most weeks. No spam, unsubscribe anytime. See our research disclaimer before relying on anything we publish.
Every note begins in the 10-K or 10-Q, not the press release. We flag where management's framing and the numbers in the footnotes disagree.
Revenue build, margin bridge, and a discounted cash flow with the growth and discount assumptions printed on the page — not buried in a black box.
We compare our fair value estimate to the market price and say, plainly, how much cushion that leaves — and what would have to be true for us to be wrong.
A walk through the segment reporting changes and what they imply for the durability of the cloud margin.
Updating the model for the latest 10-Q and testing how sensitive fair value is to the services mix assumption.
A shorter note checking last year's thesis against this year's numbers.
Sample entries shown for layout. Replace with your first published notes before launch.
A simplified Gordon growth model. Enter your own assumptions for any company — this is an educational tool, not a live quote or a recommendation on a specific security.
Fair value = EPS × (1 + growth) ÷ (discount rate − growth). This single-stage model is a starting point, not a substitute for reading the filing. It breaks down when the discount rate is close to or below the growth rate.
Discount rate must be greater than the growth rate for this model to produce a result.
Free, most weeks. The full write-up always goes to every subscriber — the model download is the only thing behind a paywall.
